The article explains what the grey market is, how shares trade in this unofficial market, and what the grey market premium (GMP) indicates about investor demand for an IPO. It also discusses the accuracy of GMPs and the potential for manipulation.
Analysis for a Layman:
The grey market refers to unofficial trading of shares before a company’s IPO listing on stock exchanges. Investors buy/sell shares based on mutual trust without regulatory oversight. GMP refers to the additional price investors pay over the IPO price in this market. Higher GMP signals robust demand and potential for stock price upside post-listing. However, GMP may be manipulated in some small IPOs.
The existence of active grey market trading highlights robust retail investor interest in IPOs and eagerness to invest in new listings. It also indicates information asymmetry where connected investors trade on insider tips on issue demand/pricing. Regulators should enhance surveillance to curb potential manipulation. Companies can leverage high pre-listing grey market demand to make follow-on offerings at premium valuations post-listing.
Impact on Retail Investors:
For retail investors, high GMP signals strong IPO interest and potential gains on listing. However, irrational exuberance can inflate GMPs beyond reasonable levels. Investors should account for this risk and not overpay based on unreliable GMPs, especially in smaller IPOs. They should rely on their own analysis of company fundamentals and valuations along with GMP signals. Loss of entire capital is also a risk if allocated shares are not transferred.
Impact on Industries:
High retail interest and grey market trading Stimulates India’s capital markets ecosystem comprising investment banks, brokers, analysts and financial media. However, rampant speculation fuelled by tips and potential manipulation creates reputation risk for markets. Regulators may be prompted to tighten disclosure norms and trading surveillance to protect retail interest.
Long Term Positives:
Active grey market signals depth in capital markets. Regulatory tightening improves transparency and retail trust over long term. Companies get feedback on what valuation markets are willing to pay even before listing day.
Long Term Negatives:
Market manipulation risk can erode investor trust damaging IPO market sentiment over long term. Retail investors losing big money may exit capital markets altogether.
Short Term Positives:
Signals strong retail interest in IPOs. Provides estimate of potential listing gains/losses for investors. Creates opportunistic trading opportunities for speculators.
Short Term Negatives:
Potential for overinflated GMP and abrupt crashes post-listing. Retail investors may lose entire capital if allocated shares are not transferred. Difficult for investors to determine integrity of GMP rates.
Companies to Gain:
Brokerages facilitating grey market trades gain from high retail interest and trading volumes. These include top brokers like Zerodha, Upstox and Groww.
Companies to Lose:
If regulators crack down on grey market due to manipulation, it can momentarily dampen IPO activity levels impacting investment banks like Kotak, Axis Capital etc.
The grey market provides a useful supplementary data point on investor demand but has inherent risks. As India’s capital markets continue evolving, tighter regulation can balance retail participation with integrity.
While grey markets provide interim price signals, regulators should enhance surveillance of potential manipulation while investors should employ discretion and not overly rely on grey market signals.
Sonawane, Ruchita. “How Do Shares Trade in Grey Market and What’s At Stake.” The Economic Times, 30 Nov. 2023, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/ipos/fpos/how-do-shares-trade-in-grey-market-and-whats-at-stake/articleshow/95859688.cms.