Analysis of Rising State Loan Guarantees to Entities – Impacts Across Industries, Stocks, and Lessons for Retail Investors
Source and Citation: News article from PTI published on Jan 22, 2024.
Analysis for Layman
The article underscores the surge in guarantees provided by major Indian states to state-owned entities, local bodies, and co-operatives, witnessing a threefold increase over five years, soaring from Rs 3 lakh crore in FY17 to Rs 9.4 lakh crore in FY23.
These guarantees serve as assurances to lenders, ensuring the state’s commitment to repay loans or fulfill obligations in case of the original borrower’s default. However, they pose contingent liabilities for states, potentially straining their finances if extensively invoked.
In response, the RBI has proposed regulatory measures to mitigate fiscal risks:
- Capping annual guarantees at 5% of revenue receipts
- Imposing fees on states for issuing guarantees, correlated with loan risk
- Enhancing lender monitoring as an alternative to depending solely on guarantees
These measures aim to foster prudence, minimizing the risk of burgeoning contingent liabilities burdening states’ budgets in the future.
Impact on Retail Investors
The escalating guarantee figures serve as a risk indicator for retail investors, carrying implications such as:
- Affecting states’ spending capabilities on growth due to rising liabilities
- Potential rating downgrades and increased borrowing costs for states if guarantees are invoked extensively
However, adherence to RBI rules can improve accountability by:
- Restraining reckless guarantees without viability assessments
- Encouraging lenders to conduct better risk assessments rather than relying solely on guarantees
Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach:
- Monitor state fiscal health for signs of strain from guarantees
- Observe actions on state ratings and bond yields if liabilities surge
- Review bank exposure to weak states as bad loan risks may rise
Impact on Industries
Public Sector Undertakings
Tighter guarantees framework results in:
- Greater due diligence by states before issuing guarantees
- Fund constraints for poorly performing state PSUs, compelling improvement
Banking
With over 50% exposure:
- Disciplined guarantees reduce moral hazard in lending
- Near-term business risks persist until clarity emerges
Infrastructure
Slower guarantees impact infrastructure companies:
- Only viable projects should secure guarantees
- States needing market funds face challenges
Power, Water, ULBs
Important sectors with major guarantees:
- Slower access can impede capital expenditure but reduces financial risks
- States may need to provide more direct funds
The discipline brings better stability despite some growth risks in the interim.
Long Term Benefits & Negatives
Benefits:
- Strengthens fiscal prudence by avoiding runaway contingent liabilities
- Reduces moral hazard of states providing unlimited guarantees without risk evaluation
- Enforces better governance and viability screening of state enterprise projects before funding
Negatives:
- Growth of state infra and utility firms may moderate with reduced easy guarantee access
- Overall infrastructure rollout within states could slow in the medium term
- Need for states to provide direct equity support ties up their resources that could have been used elsewhere
While some growth headwinds exist, enhancing financial stability outweighs the issues given the threefold rise in guarantees over five years.
Short Term Benefits & Negatives
Positives:
- Signals improved fiscal responsibility of states in managing contingent liabilities
- Boosts investor confidence that state budget risks will be addressed
Negatives:
- Slowdown in infra projects qualifying for guarantees as norms are tightened
- States’ budgets may get pressured as more funds are needed for direct equity support
For investors, short-term price corrections could emerge in stocks with high state exposure like banks and infrastructure companies as implications are evaluated. However, better transparency and stability should emerge, aiding long-term value.
Companies Impacted by Increased Demand for Startup CFOs
Indian Companies Potentially Impacted:
Gainers:
- Executive Search Firms:
- Companies like Korn Ferry, 3one4 Capital, and other executive search firms specializing in placing CFOs for startups could see increased business and revenue growth due to the higher demand.
- Financial Consulting Firms:
- Consulting firms with expertise in finance, governance, and IPO preparedness might see increased demand for their services as startups seek to improve their financial functions and prepare for listing. Companies like EY, Deloitte, and KPMG could benefit.
- Financial Technology (FinTech) Companies:
- Companies providing automated financial management software, data analytics platforms, and compliance tools could see increased demand from startups looking to modernize their finance operations. Players like Zoho Finance, Tally, and ClearTax might benefit.
- Talent Acquisition Platforms:
- Platforms specializing in placing finance professionals could see increased activity as startups seek to attract experienced CFOs. Naukri, LinkedIn, and specialized FinTech recruitment platforms could benefit.
Losers:
- Established Companies:
- Existing CFOs in established companies might face increased competition for talent, making it potentially more difficult and expensive to retain or recruit experienced financial professionals.
Global Companies:
Less Impacted:
- The news primarily impacts the domestic Indian market and executive search landscape. Global companies are unlikely to see significant direct impact unless heavily involved in India’s startup ecosystem or providing relevant services.
Disclaimer: This analysis is based on the information provided in the news article and should not be considered financial advice. It is recommended to conduct thorough research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.