SpiceJet’s Settlement Talks with Celestial Aviation: Impacts on Aviation and Stock Markets
Source and Citation: Article published by ET Bureau in Economic Times on January 19, 2024.
Analysis for a Layman
SpiceJet, India’s second-largest budget airline, has received a temporary reprieve in its financial challenges as creditors, including aircraft leasing company Celestial Aviation, have agreed to postpone legal proceedings during ongoing settlement discussions.
Celestial Aviation had initially filed for insolvency against financially strained SpiceJet due to unpaid dues for leasing 737 MAX planes. However, ongoing negotiations and recent payments by SpiceJet led Celestial to inform the bankruptcy court NCLT about the ongoing talks. The court subsequently adjourned hearings to February 26th, providing more time for resolution.
This temporary relief is crucial for SpiceJet, which is grappling with issues such as high fuel prices, rupee depreciation, and the impact of Covid on travel demand. The airline had faced a cash crunch, resulting in flight cuts and regulatory penalties. If settlement talks fail, creditors can proceed with insolvency filings, potentially leading to ownership changes.
Impact on Retail Investors
For retail investors, the deferment of insolvency proceedings offers a respite, reducing the immediate risk of drastic stock declines or ownership changes. This comes as a relief after SpiceJet shares experienced a 67% decline in 2022 amid financial uncertainties.
However, the outlook for SpiceJet remains challenging unless it can secure substantial capital and create a more favorable sales environment to address its approximately ₹3,000 crore debt burden. With a market share of only 7% in December compared to IndiGo’s 57% and Air India’s combined 27% for Tata group airlines, SpiceJet faces significant competition.
Investors should closely monitor whether SpiceJet successfully concludes settlements with all lessors and lenders, secures new investors, reduces debt levels, and implements cost-cutting measures. The upcoming competition from Akasa’s significant Boeing order adds to the complexity of the situation.
Over the long term, if SpiceJet’s financial stress persists, ownership changes may become inevitable, making the current relief short-lived. Savvy investors are advised to avoid speculative bets.
Impact on Industries
For Indian aviation, SpiceJet’s previous grounding of planes resulted in reduced seating capacity and increased fares, negatively affecting consumers and industries like tourism. The temporary agreement reduces uncertainties surrounding further supply cuts, but the sector’s outlook depends on SpiceJet’s financial stability.
Jet fuel suppliers may experience softened demand if SpiceJet eventually scales down capacity under financial duress. Airports could also face reduced revenue in such a scenario. Competitor airlines like IndiGo and Air India may seek to capture SpiceJet’s market share, closely monitoring and adjusting fares.
A worst-case scenario, such as SpiceJet’s collapse, could put its 12,000+ employees at risk, prompting government intervention for rehabilitation. However, reports of a potential merger with Tata-SIA joint venture Vistara suggest an alternative that could absorb staff, aircraft, and reduce surplus industry capacity.
For Boeing and plane leasing firms, ongoing negotiations prevent the swelling of balance sheets with returned inventory. However, they may be inclined towards ownership changes to better recover their dues.
Long Term Benefits & Negatives
In the long run, the Indian aviation industry is poised to grow from approximately 200 million annual passengers to an estimated 500 million passengers by 2030-2040. This growth potential suggests opportunities for multiple airlines to thrive if they execute sound commercial strategies.
SpiceJet’s avoidance of insolvency provides a chance for recovery, contingent on shoring up operational cash flows through high load factors and ancillary revenue. Successful restructuring of debt with creditors will be essential, requiring a focus on core competencies and shedding non-core assets. While negotiations may persist, survival remains plausible.
Alternatively, competitive pressures may eventually force ownership changes at SpiceJet, currently led by promoter Ajay Singh. The airline possesses inherent strengths like airport slots, brand recognition, and established routes that strategic or financial investors could leverage with access to capital. Careful consideration would be necessary regarding staff assimilation.
In the broader trajectory, consolidation may benefit the sector more than surplus capacities driving fare wars and financial distress.
Short Term Benefits & Negatives
In the short term, the agreement to postpone insolvency proceedings offers relief, potentially averting an immediate threat until February 2024 or later if settlements materialize.
SpiceJet can utilize this grace period to urgently secure working capital funding through investors, asset sales, or securitization of receivables. The airline also benefits from the yearly uptick in travel demand, supporting higher fares and load factors, providing higher revenue potential if managed efficiently. Reduced uncertainties may slow down staff and pilot attrition.
Major risks, however, persist if oil prices spike or Covid resurgences dent travel demand, affecting cash accruals. Aggressive competitors may attempt to gain market share, sensing SpiceJet’s vulnerability in the 1-2 year horizon. Steep discounting may be required to fill added capacity, and deals like salary cuts and unpaid leaves cannot be ruled out.
If settlements fail, lessors can proceed with grounding planes, causing deeper network cuts and severely hampering financial health and stock investor returns. The next few months remain crucial for SpiceJet’s fundraising efforts.
Companies Impacted by SpiceJet-Celestial Hearing Deferral
Indian Companies Likely to Gain:
- SpiceJet (SPICEJET): A successful settlement with Celestial would avoid insolvency proceedings, boost investor confidence, and potentially improve access to credit and aircraft leases. This could allow SpiceJet to stabilize its operations and potentially regain market share.
- Indian Aerospace Sector (HINDUAERO, SAIR, BEL): If SpiceJet remains operational, it will require maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) services for its existing fleet, benefiting Indian aerospace companies.
- Indian Tourism Industry (IHCL, DEEPAK): Continued operation of SpiceJet would maintain competition and potentially bring down airfares, potentially boosting domestic tourism.
Indian Companies Likely to Lose:
- Celestial Aviation: If a settlement involves debt write-offs or concessions, Celestial may face reduced revenue and profitability.
- Other SpiceJet Lessors (CITI Leasing, Willis Lease Finance): A settlement with Celestial could set a precedent for similar deals with other lessors, potentially impacting their recoveries.
- Air India: A stable SpiceJet could pose stronger competition to Air India in the budget segment, slowing down its market share gains.
Global Companies Likely to Gain:
- Boeing (BA): Continued operation of SpiceJet would ensure continued demand for Boeing 737 aircraft in India, benefiting its production and sales.
- Engine Manufacturers (GE Aviation, CFM International): SpiceJet’s fleet relies on engines from GE or CFM, so a settlement would secure continued demand for their products.
- Aircraft Parts Suppliers (Honeywell, United Technologies): Continued operation of SpiceJet assures demand for various aircraft parts supplied by these companies.
Global Companies Likely to Lose:
- Law Firms: A settlement would avoid a lengthy legal battle, reducing potential revenue for law firms involved in the case.
- Debt Collection Agencies: If a settlement involves debt write-offs, debt collection agencies might experience reduced revenue from SpiceJet.
Market Sentiment:
- A successful settlement is likely to be viewed positively by investors in SpiceJet and related sectors, potentially leading to increased stock prices.
- Conversely, companies facing increased competition or uncertainty (other lessors, Air India) may see their stock prices dip slightly.
- Global aviation and aerospace companies involved in servicing Boeing 737 MAX or supplying parts are likely to see positive market sentiment.
Disclaimer: This analysis is based on publicly available information and should not be considered financial advice. It is recommended to consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.