Government Uncovers Over Rs 1.98 Lakh Crore GST Evasion in 2023
Source and Citation: Article excerpt from Economic Times, January 12, 2024
Analysis of this news for a layman
India’s tax intelligence agency, the Directorate General of GST Intelligence (DGGI), has uncovered widespread Goods and Services Tax (GST) evasion amounting to Rs 1.98 lakh crore in 2023. This amount is more than double the levels of evasion detected in 2022, indicating an alarming increase in tax non-compliance that adversely affects public finances.
In 2023, the DGGI identified over 6,300 cases of GST evasion across various sectors. The key offenders were online gaming and casino companies, insurance providers, importers evading customs duty, and those claiming fake tax credits.
This trend poses fiscal stability risks as it involves substantial amounts of evaded taxes. Moreover, it has negative social and security implications when illegal funds generation rises. The government took action against these frauds, resulting in over 140 arrests.
While voluntary payments of Rs 28,362 crore were recovered from these errant companies, sustained vigilance is essential as new methods of tax evasion emerge annually. Such illegal practices deprive the government of significant tax revenue.
Impact on Retail Investors
For retail investors, the news of widespread GST evasion raises concerns on multiple fronts. Firstly, it indicates governance and compliance issues in sectors like online gaming. Responsible investors should exercise caution and avoid investing in industries marked by fraudulent activities.
Secondly, the loss of tax revenues affects India’s fiscal health and the broader economy. An increase in the fiscal deficit could raise overall market risk. Investors should closely monitor tax collection trends as a key macroeconomic indicator of stability.
Thirdly, businesses engaged in unlawful practices that evade taxes often cheat customers and shareholders, reflecting a lack of ethics throughout their operations. Investors should conduct thorough due diligence and screen for corporate governance red flags before making investment decisions.
Lastly, the continued crackdown on tax evasion may lead to sector-specific impacts. Investors should brace for volatility in sectors like fintech as regulatory actions and scandals unfold.
Impact on Industries
Industries with a high incidence of GST evasion will bear the brunt of intensified government scrutiny and enforcement actions:
Online Gaming: This sector has been one of the largest offenders, with rampant tax evasion and the generation of black money worth hundreds of crores. The government is likely to continue its crackdown through measures such as bans and changes in taxation policies.
Financial Services: Insurance and lending firms have been involved in GST fraud for years. Stricter regulations are expected to protect consumers and government revenue.
Import-Export: Customs duty evasion has been rampant in areas such as imported services, goods, and forex transactions. Stricter checks and penalties are likely to be enacted within the trade ecosystem.
Ecommerce: The e-commerce sector, previously banned from offering discounts, has been susceptible to GST fraud through dummy vendors and fake billing. Policy overhauls are imminent.
Entertainment: Undeclared income and GST skimming have been widespread in sectors such as films, music, and events. Regulatory formations and random raids are on the horizon.
Conversely, sectors with robust compliance will benefit:
FMCG: Branded players may gain at the expense of fringe tax-evading competitors.
Retail: Organized chains with compliance measures can consolidate their market share.
Infrastructure: Transparent bidding processes are important in this sector.
Long Term Benefits & Negatives
Addressing endemic tax evasion offers long-term benefits but requires sustained effort:
Benefits:
- Widens the tax net and increases tax collection, improving India’s fiscal health.
- Deters unlawful activity due to the higher perceived likelihood of penalties.
- Channels transactions through the formal economy, improving transparency.
- Builds the perception of data-driven efficient governance, minimizing leakage.
- Levels the playing field for compliant businesses versus fraudulent rivals.
Negatives:
- Requires continuous improvement of skills and tools to detect ever-evolving evasion methods.
- Impacts economic activity in sectors with high non-compliance as changes unfold.
- Potential overreach requires safeguards to prevent business harassment.
- Lack of visible outcomes in the early years can affect further funding support.
- Myopic targets can skew officer incentives toward short-term wins.
The drive to combat tax evasion should continue but be balanced with measures that facilitate honest taxpayers’ growth.
Short Term Benefits & Negatives
In the short term, uncovering massive GST evasion brings quick wins but also disruption:
Benefits:
- A surge in voluntary payments improves near-term tax collection.
- Catching large frauds early deters other potential evaders through signaling.
- High penalties on a few prominent companies reassure compliant taxpayers.
- Addresses public criticism about CGST laxity and inefficiency, given the large sums detected.
- Gains political and bureaucratic support for expanded enforcement budgets.
Negatives:
- Investigations consume significant oversight resources, reducing bandwidth.
- Ambiguous interpretation of offenses leads to business uncertainty.
- Public naming and shaming without due process may appear excessive.
- Quick crackdown affects near-term profits, valuations, and jobs in impacted sectors.
- Focus on detections risks losing sight of facilitating honest taxpayers.
While the shock and awe from large seizures may have positive optics, sustainability requires a balance between the carrot and stick approach. Swinging too far in either direction carries risks.